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Feb 17, 14:55
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Opened a long-term AAPL/TSLA pair trade.
Am bearish TSLA for rest of this year, and AAPL looks like one of the few decent long legs currently.
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Feb 05, 22:17
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Bought a long term bag of MOH here after it dumped 30% on bad earnings.
They have solid fundamentals and should trade significantly higher towards EOY, especially after democrats win the midterms. https://t.co/GlxzVOHlVY
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Feb 04, 20:50
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Out at BE, too strong for the time being.
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Feb 02, 13:53
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Also note how the Ray Dalio thesis has become common normie knowledge.
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Feb 02, 13:50
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Believe this latest gold bubble was a top for the big debasement narrative for the foreseeable future.
Global bond yields (ex Japan) are stable and have been stable for the past year. Fiat debasement is inevitable but it's not going to happen overnight.
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Feb 01, 14:09
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Believe both of these are set to meaningfully mean-revert over the coming years. https://t.co/avs5yJEMbb
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Feb 01, 09:44
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Warsh wants to do QT > no more (or delayed) Fed put > significant increase in left tail risk for US equities.
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 31, 17:20
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Around 70-72k will provide a high R/R opportunity to long if/when we get it.
It's a level with significant importance, on par with 100k. Held as resistance for 8 months until we breached through it on Trump's election win.
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Batch analyzed (6 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 30, 10:03
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So Warsh wants to do QT over the long run, thus strengthening the USD.
Trump wants weaker USD. What if he simply counters Warsh by enforcing the Fed’s third mandate? I.e. printing more money using Treasury and then forcing Warsh to buy up the bonds.
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 29, 22:17
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PvP who can get the weakest currency
https://t.co/eOObYzO6d7
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 29, 20:36
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One of Trump’s main goals this term has been to reshore manufacturing, and for that he needs to significantly devalue the dollar.
Against other currencies, against home prices, against stocks, against gold and other commodities, against anything.
Viewed through this lens, it https://t.co/IKEpkb3kQU
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 27, 21:40
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One of my exit signals is if/when we get a panic in US Treasuries.
Eg sell-off in USTs leads to cascade > panic causes more selling > capital flight into gold and other commodities. Not saying this will happen but would be a good top signal.
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Batch analyzed (3 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 27, 21:16
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Sometimes all you need to do is sit on your hands and let your winners run. https://t.co/EPzAAkTGoc
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Batch analyzed (3 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 25, 20:21
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Historically, 3k has been a pivotal level for ETH.
Breakout above 3k = proceed to 4k.
Breakdown below 3k = proceed to 2k.
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Batch analyzed (3 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Dec 19, 15:26
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Reasoning for assigning 90% odds of winning to Democrats:
- Democrats only need to gain 5 seats to win the House.
- Historically (since WW2) the sitting party has lost an average of 25 seats during midterm elections.
- Since 1982, sitting party has always lost the House, only https://t.co/IJAvLEWuff
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Dec 19, 15:01
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Towards the end of next year, we will have midterm elections. It is very likely (imo 90%) that Dems will win the House.
Historically, during the 12 months leading up to the midterms, the SP500 returns only 3.2% on average (compared to the 8.4% average, and 14.5% in the 12 months https://t.co/lZEnS68u4x
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Dec 16, 15:19
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Who is Kevin Warsh?
- Latest favorite on Polymarket for next Fed chair at 45%.
- Nominated Fed governor by Bush in early 2006 at age 35; youngest Fed appointment in history.
- Resigned early 2011 when he saw the Fed was doing QE again amid recovering economy (QE2). Unemployment
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Dec 12, 13:47
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Gold getting ready for a potential breakout to new ATH following this week's FOMC.
Zooming out, price action since the recent parabolic run looks very strong; successive HLs and HHs following the initial pullback and back near ATH within just two months. If the breakout fails
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Dec 10, 21:22
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Closed at a loss. Hoped for this to be the catalyst that could lead to a 100k retest but alas.
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Dec 10, 20:16
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Decent FOMC, riding BTC and HYPE
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Nov 26, 12:34
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The Bitcoin bear market will continue until there are clear signs of AI progress slowing down.
Until then, the marginal dollar prefers betting on AGI rather than fiat devaluation.
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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